TOTALENERGIES : Ouille ! Excès de pétrole en 2026

Totochapo

10 décembre 2025 •18:47

There's a 'super glut' of oil coming in 2026 on weak demand and booming supply, top commodities firm says Trafigura thinks the oil market could see a "super glut" of crude next year.
The commodities firm pointed to new supply hitting the market while demand remains lackluster.
Oil prices have already stumbled in 2025 amid waning global demand and increased output.
The long-predicted "super glut" of oil is expected to hit energy markets in 2026. Trafigura, one of the world's biggest commodities trading firms, said it believes the oil market will see a flood of new supply at a time when the demand outlook is softening globally.

"If we look at what is driving the expectations of that super glut, it's hard to see how we don't get there," Saad Rahim, the chief economist at Trafigura, said in a video posted with the firm's annual financial results on Tuesday. There are two things that feed into the expected glut of crude next year, Rahim said:

Fresh oil output. The supply of oil is largely determined by long-term projects. The market is expected "pretty much guaranteed" to see some of that supply come on in the next year, given that some projects have been planned for a decade or more, he said.
Relatively weak demand growth. "Even if you were to really double what people are projecting, you're still not making up for that supply growth, Rahim said.The crude market has already been feeling the effects of the supply-demand imbalance this year. Apart from a brief blip during the Israel-Iran conflict over the summer, oil prices have been trending lower all year. Brent crude, the international benchmark, traded around $62 a barrel on Tuesday, down 18% year-to-date. West Texas Intermediate crude traded around $58 a barrel, down 19% year-to-date.

"Whether it's a glut or a super glut, it's really hard to get away from that," he added, though he noted that factors like tighter sanctions and decreased production among OPEC nations and the US could help with the supply outlook. If China, one of the world's largest oil consumers, were to slow its oil purchases, that could be another factor that could usher in the supply glut, he added.

The firm's view tracks with what other forecasters see for the oil market next year, some of whom have floated the possibility of a supply glut in the past. In its November report, the International Energy Agency said it expected the world's oil supply to surge by over 3 million barrels a day in 2026 while demand growth remains "modest by historical standards." The agency added that the balance of the market looked "increasingly askew."

Totochapo

10 décembre 2025 •18:53

Pas prometteur pour nos actions , tout ça !

sergega2

10 décembre 2025 •19:32

Comprenne qui pourra ,moi, je trouve cela tres prometteur..Je vous le dis franchement, ça me remonte le moral.