Fitch Ratings: le remplacement de la CVAE par la TVA est positif pour la qualité de crédit des régions françaises

information fournie par Reuters •14/10/2020 à 11:58

(The following statement was released by the rating agency) Fitch Ratings-Paris-14 October 2020: Selon Fitch, le remplacement de la cotisation sur la valeur ajoutée des entreprises (CVAE) par des recettes de TVA en 2021, prévu dans le projet de loi de finances pour 2021, est positif pour la qualité de crédit des régions car elle leur permettra d’éviter une baisse sensible de recettes fiscales en 2021-2022. La CVAE est l’une des plus importantes recettes fiscales perçues par les collectivités territoriales (CT) françaises, avec un produit de 19 milliards d’euros en 2019. Il s’agit de la principale recette des régions françaises (10 milliards d’euros, soit 34% de leurs recettes de gestion en 2019). Cette recette est également partagée avec les départements (4 milliards d’euros) et le bloc municipal (6 milliards d’euros). Cette recette fiscale, qui repose sur la valeur ajoutée des entreprises du territoire, est perçue avec un décalage d’une à deux années par les CT. Par conséquent, la récession économique liée à la crise sanitaire ne conduira pas à une baisse des recettes de CVAE en 2020, contrairement à d’autres recettes fiscales. Cependant, nous nous attendons à ce que les recettes de CVAE baissent fortement en 2021-2022, de l’ordre de 10%. Dans le cadre de son plan de relance, le gouvernement souhaite baisser les impôts de production qui pèsent sur les entreprises françaises de 10 milliards d’euros et propose, dans le projet de loi de finances pour 2021, de remplacer la part régionale de CVAE par une nouvelle fraction de TVA, s’ajoutant à celle déjà perçue par les régions (4 milliards d’euros en 2019). Fitch comprend que la nouvelle fraction de TVA sera égale en 2021 aux recettes de CVAE des régions perçues en 2020. Celles-ci ne feront donc pas face à une baisse de rendement sur cette ressource en 2021-2022. Ce remplacement ne s’appliquera pas en revanche aux départements et au bloc communal. Par conséquent, près de la moitié des recettes de gestion des régions françaises seront constituées de TVA à partir de 2021. Il n’est toutefois pas précisé pour l’instant si les régions bénéficieront à l’avenir d’un niveau plancher sur leur nouvelle fraction de TVA, similaire au plancher de recettes dont elles bénéficient sur leur part actuelle de TVA. Fitch considère que le potentiel de croissance des recettes de TVA et de CVAE est relativement similaire et que cette modification du panier de ressources ne remettra pas en cause le potentiel de croissance des recettes régionales à long terme. Cette modification améliorera également la prévisibilité des recettes des régions car la volatilité des recettes de TVA tend à être inférieure à celle des recettes de CVAE. Cependant, la réforme bénéficiera surtout aux régions dont la croissance économique est inférieure à la moyenne nationale, et pénalisera légèrement les autres régions. Contrairement aux recettes de TVA qui sont liées à la consommation au niveau national, les recettes de CVAE sont indirectement liées à la croissance du PIB local. Ainsi, la croissance des recettes de CVAE diffère d’une région à l’autre. Entre 2015 et 2019, les recettes de CVAE des CT françaises ont crû de 3,3% par an en moyenne, un niveau supérieur à la croissance du PIB nominal français (2,6%). Le niveau de croissance des recettes de CVAE a été sensiblement différent d’une région à l’autre : les recettes ont crû de 2,2% par an en moyenne dans la région Centre-Val de Loire sur cette période (hors le doublement de la part régionale de la CVAE en 2017), contre un niveau supérieur à 4% dans les régions Bretagne et Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur et 6,6% à la Réunion (A-/Négative). Le 9 octobre 2020, Fitch a laissé inchangées les notes et perspectives de quatre régions françaises : la Bretagne, le Centre-Val-de-Loire, l’Ile-de-France (toutes trois notées AA/Négative) et la Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur (AA-/Stable). Nos hypothèses de scénario de notation intègrent le remplacement de la CVAE par des recettes de TVA car nous considérons que l’adoption de cette disposition législative est très probable. Cela a conduit à une amélioration de nos ratios de soutenabilité de la dette attendus dans nos scénarios de notation, en comparaison avec nos dernières revues des notes en avril et mai 2020. Cette amélioration est toutefois en partie compensée par des dépenses qui devraient être en 2020 supérieures à celles que nous avions prévues il y a quelques mois pour la plupart des régions notées.

Contacts presse: Athos Larkou, London, Tel: +44 20 3530 1549, Email: athos.larkou@thefitchgroup.com

The above article originally appeared as a post on the Fitch Wire credit market commentary page. The original article can be accessed at www.fitchratings.com. All opinions expressed are those of Fitch Ratings.

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