ARCELORMITTAL : Marche de l'acier chinois: Bloomberg

albanrr

10 juin 2014 •15:57

Analyst Kenneth Hoffman & Zhuo Zhang
Jun 10, 2014 08:00

BHP Sees Chinese Steel Growth Falling to 3.2%: Bear Case
In the last decade, growth in Chinese steel production has been a healthy 10.8% annually. BHP sees that falling 70% to just 3.2% annualized growth in the next 10 years, signaling a near-end to the surging growth that characterized the past 15 years. The steel industry has brought new capacity online in hopes of traditional growth rates continuing. Falling far short of those rates could be bearish for the industry.

Massive Chinese Iron Ore Stocks Bad for Steel Demand: Bear Case
Relentless new weekly records for iron ore and coking coal piled at Chinese ports keep coming. Investors wonder if this means the steel industry is slowing to a crawl as the government implements stricter financing policies for securing raw materials and the many construction projects around China. Any slowdown in Chinese steel production may mean a lower steel price environment going forward.

China's Falling Backlog Worrisome for Steel Industry: Bear Case
A four-year swoon in Chinese PMI order backlogs indicates the nation's growth slowdown may not be at an end. Steel and iron ore prices had risen in China, and globally, in anticipation of economies stabilizing and then, ultimately, improving. In a Bear Case, the Chinese backlog decline indicates this optimism may have come too soon and that steel prices may fall again.