bon je tente de poster l'avis de la KBC :
MORNING NOTE
12 January 2015
THIS DOCUMENT IS NOT PRODUCED BY KBC SECURITIES USA, INC.
5
FUGRO
Boskalis increases stake to 20.01%
OIL EQUIPMENT, SERVICES & DISTRIBUTION
CU
RRENT PRICE
€
15.80
HOLD
NETHERLANDS
TARGET PRICE
€
14.00
RATING UNCHANGED
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream
On Friday 9 January 2014 after close, Royal Boskalis Westminster N.V.
(Boskalis) announced it has has increased its holding in Fugro N.V. to
20.01%. Boskalis (again) stresses that this is not a step towards making an
offer. In the announcement, Boskalis re
iterated it views Fugro as an
interesting company with strong market positions in its core activities.
Boskalis also stated again that its strategy is focused on offshore and
(maritime) infrastructure, making use of the combination of high end know
-
how and
maritime assets. This fits very well with the activities of Fugro,
according to Boskalis. The two companies have a lot in common in the area
of assets, knowledge, capital intensity, global coverage, client base and are
both global leaders in niche markets
, Boskalis stated. In a reaction, Fugro
stated the stake building by Boskalis is unsolicited and unexpected. Fugro
reiterated it highly values its position as the world leading independent
geotechnical and survey services and data provider, which is core t
o Fugro's
strategy.
No bid allowed until 7 May 2015
According to AFM rules, if a potential offeror states that it will not announce a
public take
-
over bid, it will not be able to announce a new takeover bid for the
same target company for six months. T
he offeror may not assume a position
of decisive control in the target company during six months. We believe this
implies Boskalis is not allowed to launch a bid on Fugro until 7 May 2015,
which is six months after their initial announcement.
Challenging
oil services market
The fact that Boskalis has increased its stake in Fugro shows, in our view,
that the company remains committed and continued to buy, also at higher
level than the company initiated its stake, which we estimate was at €
13
-
14
share pri
ce level. We think the eagerness of Boskalis is impressive given
where the oil services market is heading to in 2015 and most likely also in
2016. Recent surveys show 2015 budgets for E&P spending face double digit
declines and we believe the recent declin
e in the oil price has increased
uncertainty on spending budgets even further. Although certain segments in
the oil services industry are knowledge driven, a significant part of the
industry earnings momentum is also driven supply
-
demand. With spending
by
oil majors facing significant pressure in 2015 vs 2014 we would not rule
out the possibility of further margin pressure in certain segments due to
pricing pressure and utilization issues, which will likely also affect earnings
momentum at Fugro.
Conclu
sion:
We reiterate with our HOLD rating and €
14.0 price target at
which Fugro trades at 2015
-
2016E P/E multiples of 13.5 and 8.5x,
respectively. We expect the share price of Fugro to experience volatile
trading where take
-
over speculation may fuel the sha
re price while negative
news flow on sector earnings momentum could impact the share price
negatively. For the longer term and in the absence of dilutive funding
requirements we see a potential DCF value for Fugro of €
26.5 per share
(WACC of 9.2%, perpetu
al growth of 3% and l
-
t EBIT margin of 12.0%