dans sa top list 2008 et c'est le seul titre minier !!! et l'analyste de la banque pense que le gold peut potentiellement toucher les 1000$ l'once !
---> GOLD AND SILVER ANALYSIS
GOLD TO TEST $850-$1000/OZ
Barrick Gold is sole Citigroup 2008 top metals and mining stock pick
The absence of metals and mining stocks was very evident in Citigroups list of 58 top stock picks for 2008 released Thursday as only Barrick Gold was named.
Author: Dorothy Kosich
Posted: Friday , 04 Jan 2008
RENO, NV -
Citigroup selected Toronto's Barrick Gold as the sole metals and mining stock among its 58 "top picks" for 2008.
Other top picks included Coca-Cola, Halliburton, Intel, Marathon Oil, McDonalds, Merrill Lynch, Sempra Energy, Time Warner and WalMart.
Citigroup precious metals analysts John H. Hill said in the report which was published Thursday that, "We favor Barrick for its high margins, strong execution, and unmatched project portfolio. We would be buyers up to our target of $48/share, which is based on 16x 2008 P/E and 14x P/OCF at $750/oz gold, and 1.6x price/net asset value based on long-term forecasts of $700/oz gold and $1.50/lb copper."
Hill added that, "We continue to be ardent believers in the supply-centric tenets of the commodity supercycle. Yet, the U.S. economy is slowing sharply, and demand for industrial metals is likely to remain soft well into 2008. This increases our conviction in gold, where catalysts are rotating from safe-haven demand, to currencies, to the broader re-flation trade."
"We believe gold will test $850-$1,000 per ounce, setting up a favorable dynamic for the world's No. 1 miner Barrick Gold," he declared.
Meanwhile, Citigroup analysts said, "The outlook for 2008 suggests more potential for meaningful first half equity market gains followed by some retrenchment in the second half (akin to 2007) given probable margin deterioration, election uncertainty, and growing economic nationalism."
Citigroup's analysis found that "there is near unanimous agreement by the investment community that sell-side estimates are too high, almost across the board in terms of sectors, with the possible exception of Health Care."
"As the bull market matures, large caps will likely sustain their leadership because of increased volatility, wider credit spreads, slowing profit growth, and rising consumer delinquencies," according to the analysts.
Citgroup's worries about the second half of this year "focus on a potential turning point in margins. Survey work showing the difference between management intentions to hike prices and lift labor costs raises the corporate margin risk profile for late 2008. ...we could see the equity market top out around mid-year and begin to give back some of the gains in the latter part of 2008."
The overall outlook for this year entails greater economic risk due to the current credit crunch and its impacts on jobs and capital investment, according to Citigroup. The analysts noted that among the risks to the 2008 outlook are recession, inflation, energy shocks and geopolitical events, "In addition, increment credit crunch developments and even sharper home price declines could generate a downward spiral that most likely would require aggressive fiscal and monetary policy."
Meanwhile, Citigroup also suggest that small and mid caps will lag behind large caps in 2009 because of a widening of high-yield credit spreads, the slowing of overall U.S. corporate profit growth, rising consumer loan delinquencies, higher volatility, and a tightening of commercial and industrial loans.
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