Pour ce que cela vaut:
01/07/2014
"Le cours du minerai de fer, un élément majeur pour le groupe minier anglo-australien, est proche d'un plancher, affirme Bank of America Merrill Lynch. "Compte tenu du faible niveau de l'action et de la baisse du cours du minerai de fer qui semble approcher d'un point bas, nous nous attendons à une augmentation des stocks au second semestre, soutenue par les réformes politiques en Chine visant à soutenir les investissements dans les infrastructures et les logements", explique la banque. Elle relève sa recommandation sur le titre de "neutre" à "acheter" et augmente l'objectif de cours de 3.400 à 4.000 pence. L'action est en tête des valeurs du FTSE 100, avec une hausse de 2,8%, à 3.195 pence. "
Plus interessant, il me semble, sur l'eviction des producteurs marginaux:
BHP Billiton’s efforts to push high-cost Chinese iron ore producers out of the market by increasing its own supply are showing first signs of success, with a number of domestic Chinese producers closing in the last few weeks.
Mike Henry, BHP’s president of marketing, says high-cost suppliers have been slow to react to the ramp-up by the lower-cost majors, including BHP, Rio Tinto, Fortescue Metals and Brazil’s Vale. It was important they shut in a “reasonably efficient manner” to avoid a “compounding of supply," he said.
“As a lot of low-cost supply came to market over six to 12 months, (the) response from high-cost suppliers was slower than it has been historically,” Mr Henry said, speaking after a site tour in Port Hedland. “But over the past few weeks, you’re starting to see some of that high-cost supply shut in. That’s one of the things that has helped buoy iron ore prices over the past week or so.”
The iron ore majors are increasing capacity despite iron ore prices having dropped 30 per cent to about $US94 a tonne since the start of the year.
Cementing their dominance
The production ramp-up is in part designed to force higher-cost Chinese and Australian producers out of the market and cement the dominance of the majors. Mr Henry tipped demand for iron ore will grow by 30 to 50 million tonnes this calendar year, well short of the 130 to 150 million tonnes of new low-cost supply forecast to come onto market. He said BHP was not surprised by the recent drop in iron ore prices.
China produces about 350 million tonnes of iron ore each year, and BHP says high-cost supply is anywhere between 100 and 150 million tonnes of that. “(There is) quite a significant overhang of low-cost supply coming to market in the face of a slow but steady increase in demand,” Mr Henry said.
“So it’s really important for the high-cost suppliers to shut in a reasonably efficient manner in the face of that – otherwise you just see a compounding of supply in the market.”
However, Mr Henry said it was hard to put a figure on how much production was shutting in China.
While the brunt of the impact of the ramp-up will be felt by China, high-cost producers in other regions, including Indonesia and the Philippines, would also be affected, he said.
“The bulk of that compression in supply we believe is going to come out of China,” he said.
Locking new competition out
Fairfax Media has reported that Australia’s second-tier iron ore players are concerned that the aggressive production increases by the iron ore majors – and promises of more expansion to come – are locking new competition out of the market by spooking financiers about supply gluts and further spot-price falls.
BHP expects full-year production of 217 million tonnes for the financial year just ended, up on 187 million tonnes in 2012-13. BHP is moving towards an annual rate of 270 million tonnes but has not yet put a date on it.
Mr Henry was in Port Hedland to mark the miner’s billionth tonne of iron ore shipped to Japan – its third-largest customer – almost 50 years after the first shipment, in 1966. The billionth tonne of ore to China is expected to be shipped before the end of the year.
With Mr Henry was BHP’s president of iron ore Jimmy Wilson, who refused to be drawn to comment on job cuts and the rumoured target of 20 per cent reduction in the division’s staff numbers as part of an ongoing review by global consultants McKinsey & Co.
“At the end of the day, our aspiration is to at least hold our headcount the same (about 16,000 iron ore staff) or reduce it while we are increasing our volumes up to the 270 million (tonnes per annum) mark,” Mr Wilson said.
“If there are numbers that have leaked out as a result of consultant reports, that doesn’t necessarily mean that is going to be fact in the business. Management makes those decisions, and we make those decisions on a risk basis.”
Ou encore:
SINGAPORE/SYDNEY, July 3 (Reuters) - Canadian iron ore miner Labrador Iron Mines Holdings (LIM) said it has halted mining operations this year, as falling prices on the back of a surge in global supply hit smaller producers.
LIM, which operates in the Labrador Trough in Quebec, posted a loss of C$105.2 million ($98.6 million) for the year to March and said it would almost certainly have posted further operating losses this year given current low prices.
Iron ore prices have fallen about 30 percent so far in 2014 as a flood of new supply to main market China, fueled by an expansion binge among global miners, has overwhelmed demand.
Smaller miners are not able to achieve the economies of scale that have driven down production costs at companies such as Brazil's Vale SA, and BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto in Australia.
"LIM is currently not planning for any mining or processing activity in 2014," company president and chief operating officer Rod Cooper said in a statement on Wednesday. Subject to completion of financing, LIM plans to begin production from its bigger Houston iron ore mine in April 2015, said Cooper.
Australia's Cairn Hill iron ore mine was shut late last month by its owner IMX Resources after falling prices crippled the 1.7-million-tonnes-per-year operation. The mine is 49 percent-owned by China's Taifeng Yuanchuang International Development, which also holds a direct stake in IMX.
Ratings agency Moody's Investors Service warned on Wednesday that falling iron prices would have the biggest impact on miners that rely solely on iron ore for revenue, as well as some mining service companies.
Morgan Stanley estimates the average cash cost of iron ore producers in Canada, equivalent to the 62-percent grade benchmark, is at $80 per tonne this year compared with just $38 for Rio Tinto.
Iron ore stood at $94.70 a tonne .IO62-CNI=SI on Wednesday. A recent Reuters poll of analysts pointed to limited near-term upside, with forecasts the price could fall as low as $80 next year.
Moody's said lower prices were credit negative for single-commodity miners Fortescue Metals Group and Atlas Iron Ltd.
Each $8-per-tonne reduction in iron ore prices at current production, would cut Fortescue's annual revenue by about $1.2 billion, or roughly 11 percent of 2013 revenue, it said. Atlas' revenue would fall by about $90 million, or 9 percent of last year's revenue.
