ci-joint une traduction rapide et incomplête, mais l'essentiel y est !
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Les difficultés des banques européennes risquent de faire éclater la zone euro »
Hayman Advisors LP, le cabinet qui a engrangé 500 millions $ en pariant sur leffondrement des prêt hypothécaires subprimes, a indiqué que lunion monétaire européenne était sur le point de seffondrer.
Richard Howard, Directeur des opérations de marché de Hayman Advisors LP, a expliqué que lAllemagne pourrait opter pour le sauvetage de son économie, plutôt que pour le sauvetage des pays membres de lunion tels que lAutriche, lItalie ou lEspagne. En effet, les banques de ces pays plient sous le poids des engagements douteux quelles ont sur leur marché immobilier et sur leurs engagements insolvables en Europe de lest. Cela pourrait conduire ces banques à la faillite et décider lAllemagne à renoncer à leuro.
« Les gens disaient que les subprimes ne pourraient jamais défaillir, mais cela cest produit et maintenant ils disent exactement la même chose à propos de lEurozone » dit Howard. « Il ny a pas de moyen de stopper ce qui est maintenant une spirale infernale ».
Hayman ALP rejoint un nombre croissant dinvestisseurs qui voient la possibilité dun éclatement de la zone euro et de ses 12 trillions d, conçue il y a plus de 10 ans pour lutter contre le chômage, réduire linflation et créer une alternative au dollar. La société générale a dit cette semaine, que lAllemagne pourrait refuser de financer le sauvetage des pays membre, alors que sannonce lannée des élections.
Les banques de leurozone ont prêté à lEurope de lest près de 1 300 milliards deuros, soit 9% du PIB de la zone euro. Maintenant, ces banques risquent des pertes colossales. Les banques irlandaises ont des dettes correspondant à 11 fois le PIB de lIrlande. Les banques des pays-bas ont des dettes de 7 fois leur PIB national, tandis que les banques belges sont exposées à hauteur de 4 fois le PIB de la Belgique.
Leffondrement pourrait survenir après que les investisseurs étrangers refusent de continuer à financer les états européens exposés à ces banques. Les investisseurs se méfient en outre de la Grèce, de lAutriche, de lItalie et de lEspagne.
« Le gouvernement allemand, qui doit être renouvelé lors des élections à venir en septembre, pourrait préférer la dépense de son surplus budgétaire en Allemagne plutôt que pour aider les autres pays en difficulté » indique un rapport du 24 février 2009 émis par la Société Générale. LAllemagne est en effet le pays de la zone euro, où le PIB sest le plus fortement contracté depuis le début de la crise.
Les pressions politiques pour quitter la zone euro, risquent donc de sintensifier en Allemagne, à mesure que léchéance électorale approche.
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Euro Area Risks Breakup on Bank Woes, Subprime Bear Hayman Says
By Bo Nielsen
Feb. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Hayman Advisors LP, the firm that earned $500 million betting on the U.S. subprime mortgage-market collapse, says Europes monetary union is about to fall apart.
Richard Howard, a managing director for global markets at Dallas-based Hayman, said Germany may opt to shore up its own economy, Europes biggest, rather than bail out fellow euro nations such as Austria, Italy and Spain as their banks sag under the weight of bad debts. That might lead to defaults and compel Germany to renounce the euro, he said.
People said subprime could never blow up but it did and now theyre saying the exact same thing about the eurozone, said Howard. Theres no stopping what is now a downward spiral. He declined to discuss his investments.
Hayman joins a growing number of investors seeing the possibility of a breakup of the $12 trillion euro bloc, conceived more than 10 years ago to cut unemployment, tame inflation and create a rival to the dollar. Societe Generale SA said this week Germany may refuse a bailout in an election year. ABN Amro Holding NV said Feb. 17 the crisis is Europes subprime.
Euro-region bank loans to Eastern Europe topped $1.3 trillion in the third quarter last year, or about 9 percent of the blocs gross domestic product, ING Groep NV said Feb. 18, citing Bank for International Settlements data. Now lenders face losses after extending credit to finance everything from industrial development to domestic real estate.
Irish banks took on debt equivalent to 11 times the nations own gross domestic product, Dutch-bank credit reached seven times GDP and Belgium four times, according to BNP Paribas SA.
Debt-Default Insurance
As concern intensified that the loans wont be repaid, the cost to insure against defaults jumped six-fold to records since August. Credit-default swaps on Ireland climbed to a record 395.8 basis points, from less than 50 basis points in September, according to CMA DataVision. Austrian swaps traded at 265 basis points, compared with less than 25 points six months ago.
The breakup may occur as investors shun all but the safest government bonds, said Hayman, which in 2006 was among the first to bet against Wall Streets rush to securitize the debt of the least creditworthy U.S. borrowers, correctly predicting a slump in home values that sparked the global credit crisis.
Investor demand for the lowest-risk securities already drove the difference in yield, or spread, between Greek, Austrian and Spanish 10-year bonds and German bunds, Europes benchmark government securities, to the widest since the euros debut.
Steinbrueck, Soros
German Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck said Feb. 18 euro countries would show our ability to act should countries face difficulties paying debt. Billionaire investor George Soros said Feb. 17 he doesnt expect a breakup of the region.
The World Bank, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and the European Investment Bank will provide up to 24.5 billion euros ($31 billion) to help central and east European banks and businesses cope with the crisis.
European Central Bank officials also said solutions can be found that will ensure cohesion of the region. Executive Board Member Lorenzo Bini Smaghi said Feb. 21 that European Union rules permit the EU as a whole to aid states in economic difficulty. ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said a day earlier there is no weak link of the euro area.
The argument that the euro zone will find a solution contains some sense if the assumption is that the situation isnt that bad, said Howard. But the more dire it gets, the less are the consequences of departing from the euro.
Shrinking Economies
German GDP contracted 2.1 percent in the fourth quarter, the biggest decline since 1987, the Federal Statistics Office said on Feb. 25. The economy will shrink by 2.5 percent this year, with France contracting 1.9 percent and the euro-region 2 percent, according to an International Monetary Fund report on Jan. 28.
European governments, which committed more than 1.2 trillion euros to rescue ailing banks as the recession eroded tax revenue, will require more cash as defaults occur, Howard said. Faced with the prospect of a deepening recession, Germany and France may be reluctant to bail out euro-region members such as Spain and Italy, Howard said.
The German government, facing elections in September, might refuse requests for help amid political pressure to spend money at home, Societe Generale said in a Feb. 24 report.
A bailout of a debtor country from a surplus country like Germany would be like opening the box of Pandora, former Bundesbank President Karl Otto Poehl said in London yesterday. Its a very dangerous course that we will enter and Im very much against it, many people in Germany are against it, but the political pressure will increase,
To contact the reporter on this story: Bo Nielsen in Copenhagen at bnielsen4@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: February 27, 2009 05:36 EST
