CEL-SCI : Hé hé ... Semaine prochaine :-)

SIMlS

10 mai 2012 •13:22

For those of you who prefer speculative biotech penny stocks, there are plenty of big board listed bargains out there, but not many in late-stage trials like this one. Be warned, however, this one has been attacked for taking way too long to get through the FDA approval process, but it has been building value and fans among biotech traders. I'm taking a hard look at CEL-SCI (CVM).

Yes, that firm that has been working for over twenty years to bring a new first line therapy for head and neck cancer to market, and now that the firm has finally reached PHASE III, speculators are picking up cheap shares and taking the stock up one leg at a time.

There appears to be some forward-looking trading going on here as investors are looking for dosing info or news about the progress of the Phase III study. They're hoping it could come at the Cancer Vaccines and Cancer Immunotherapy & Immunomodulation conference next week. Eyal Talor, PhD of CEL-SCI Corporation will take the stage along with Francesco Marincola, MD of the National Institutes of Health and John S. Yu, MD of Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and OTC listed market mover Immunocellular Therapeutics (IMUC.OB). All are expected to speak to an audience at The New York Academy of Sciences.

Biotech traders also feel it bodes well for stocks like CVM that experimental drugs which have shown a big effect early in development for treating serious or life-threatening diseases may get a faster path to U.S. approval under a proposal likely to become law this year.

CEL-SCI has taken forever to get through the FDA approval process, but it doesn't quite seem to be "an ATM Machine" as some have suggested.

First, the company was stuck in their development path with good PHASE II study results unable to move forward until they built a custom $25 million cold-fill lab which has been cranking out and shipping the PHASE III drug doses around the world since.

A close examination of filings shows that there were many times along the way when executives of the company had to self-fund the company to keep it alive. Why not just give up? After all, Cel-Sci management has had to raise money during the past couple of years, some of the toughest times for biotech investing. I would think that they have succeeded in doing so because they have data and a plan which could push them through the FDA approval process, shortened or not.

Finally, the PHASE III trial is a world-wide trial and is expected to be the largest of its kind. Why go through all this trouble in order to fool retail and institutional investors? There are far easier ways to make money in the market - even as a scam.

As some have recently pointed out, the longer the PHASE III trial goes on without any negative events, the higher the share price goes. Ditto for getting closer to the finish line. Biotech traders know that moving through PHASE III and closer to results provides an excuse to trade higher. That is precisely what shares have been doing here: slowly and quietly moving, consolidating and then building one month after another. I agree with others that it is very much possible that CVM could inch higher still as the Multikine trial progresses. MLV has a $2 price target on this one.