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US42366C3016 HEB

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27 avr. 201118:32

Maxim Group LLC - 405 Lexington Avenue - New York, NY 10174 -
Closing Price (4/25/11): $0.46
12-Month Target Price: $1.50
52-Week Range: $0.44 - $0.84
Market Cap (MM): $62
Shares O/S (MM): 1 35.2
Float (MM): 131.7
Shares Short(MM): 3.12
Avg. Vol. (000) 265.9
Book Value/Share: $0.34
Dividend/Yield: $0.00/0.00%
Risk Profile: Speculative
Maxim Group
FYE: December 2010A 2011E
1Q $32.0 $30.0
2Q $41.0 $34.0
3Q $35.0 $36.0
4Q $27.0 $412.0
FY $135.0 $512.0
Maxim Group Current Prior Current
FYE: December EPS EPS P/E
2009A: GAAP ($0.12) NM
2010A: GAAP ($0.10) NM
2011E: GAAP ($0.11) NM
2012E: GAAP ($0.10) NM
LT Earnings Growth 25%
Maxim Group Current Current
FYE: December 2010A 2011E
1Q ($0.03) ($0.03)
2Q ($0.03) ($0.03)
3Q ($0.02) ($0.03)
4Q ($0.02) ($0.03)
FY ($0.10) ($0.11)
Consensus-First Call
FYE: December 2010A 2011E
1Q ($0.03) -
2Q ($0.03) -
3Q ($0.02) -
4Q ($0.02) -
FY ($0.10) ($0.11)
Quarterly Revenue ($000)
Quarterly EPS
April 26, 2011
Quarterly EPS
Hemispherx Biopharma, Inc. Buy
(HEB – Nasdaq – $0.46)
Visibility of several potential drivers improving;
Upgrading rating to Buy, from Hold, with a target price
of $1.50
What is new? Our recent discussions with management suggest
that visibility of several potential drivers of HEB has improved.
As such, we are upgrading HEB shares to Buy, from our prior
Hold rating, with a 12-month target price of $1.50.
Possible Alferon N re-launch in 2H11. Alferon N, a nature
interferon alfa-n3 derived from human leukocyte, is already
approved by the FDA as an intralesional treatment of refractory or
recurring genital warts. Due to high production costs and hence
price, Alferon N sales has been very modest. HEB has
determined to revamp its manufacture process in order to reduce
the cost and re-explore the market and this development is in the
final stage waiting for FDA approval, possibly in 3Q11. The
company is also in the late stage discussions with a prospective
marketing partner, with potential launch in 4Q11, in our
assessment. Further, payers such as Blue Cross would reimburse
Alferon N off-label use in patient suffering from MS, HCV when
refractory to current treatment and with pre-certification from the
physician. Management estimates that the peak annual sales from
approved indication could potentially reach $15+MM. We
believe the prospect of generating product revenue near-term
would be significant upside for HEB shareholders.
Ampligen in CFS pivotal trial decision slated for 2H11. With
recent discovery of a potential association or correlation between
xenotropic MLV-related virus (XMRV) and CFS, coupled with
extension of response to the FDA’s CRL for the Ampligen in CFS
NDA to November 2011, the company is actively analyzing the
correlation between XMRV and CFS patients enrolled in the prior
pivotal Ampligen trial. Once armed with the study outcome,
HEB would likely to commence a discussion with the FDA,
possibly in 3Q11, to determine the future regulatory path for
Ampligen in CFS. For a possible next Ampligen in CFS pivotal
trial, patient size could vary depending on whether both XMRV+
and - or only XMRV+ patients be included in the study.
Ampligen potentially could be a vaccine adjuvant for efficacy
improvement. Ampligen or poly(I)•poly(C12,U) is a potent and
selective Toll-like receptor 3 (TLR3) agonist that demonstrated to
be a potent tumor vaccine adjuvant in an animal model recently.
The company potentially could form collaboration with partners to
commence clinical studies possibly in 2011.
Hemispherx Biopharma, Inc. (HEB)
Maxim Group LLC 2
Upgrade HEB due to improved outlook. With an improved outlook of HEB shares reflected from possible
Alferon N re-launch with the potential for substantial revenue going forward, potential commencements of
the Ampligen in CFS pivotal trial and the vaccine adjuvant trial in 2011, we are upgrading HEB shares to
Buy, from Hold, and introducing a 12-month target price of $1.50. Validation of our recommendation is
strongly dependent on the execution by management in achieving these milestones.
We have elected to use sum-of-the-parts analysis for our major valuation method for HEB with $1.50 as our 12-
month target price. Within our valuation, Alferon N, Ampligen in CFS, Ampligen as vaccine adjuvant and debtfree
cash account for 28% ($0.42), 54% ($0.81), 6% ($0.09), and 12% ($0.18), respectively (Figure 1). For each
asset, the value was determined by a probability-adjusted net present value analysis. For example, for Alferon N,
we estimated that the NPV is of $65MM, and by multiplying with a 90% probability-adjustment, the probabilityadjusted
NPV is $58MM. For Ampligen of CFS, we estimated that the NPV is $721MM, and by multiplying
with a more conservative 16% probability-adjustment the probability-adjusted NPV is $112MM. For Ampligen
as vaccine adjuvant, we estimated that the NPV is $50MM, and by multiplying with a 25% probabilityadjustment
the probability-adjusted NPV is $13MM. Further, our comparable analysis based on peers with midto
late-stage developing products that have suffered development upsets earlier and bounced back due to positive
catalysts also derives a fair value of $1.47 for HEB, supporting our sum-of-the-parts derived valuation.
Figure 1: HEB sum-of-the-parts analysis
Alferon N Marketed
Value in the 2011 = 58.0
Value per share = $0.42 27.9%
Ampligen - Chronic Fatigue Syndrome Phase III
Value in the 2011 = 112.4
Value per share = $0.81 54.0%
Ampligen - Vaccine adjuvant
Value in the 2011 = 12.7
Value per share = $0.09 6.1%
Debt-free cash
Value in the 2011 = 25.0
Value per share = $0.18 12.0%
Total = $1.51 100.0%
Source: Maxim Group LLC research and SEC filing
Hemispherx Biopharma, Inc. (HEB)
Maxim Group LLC 3
Expected milestones for 2011 and beyond
Program Indication Event Timing
Potential FDA approval of manufacture facility 3Q11
Potentially re-initiate U.S. sales 4Q11
Potential discussion with the FDA for future regulatory path 3Q11
Potentially initiate Phase III trial 2012
As vaccine adjuvant Potentially initiate human clinical trials 2011
Alferon LDO Seasonal flu treatment & prevention Potentially initiate Phase II trial 2011
Alferon-N Genital warts
Chronic Fatigue Syndrome (CFS)
Source: Company reports and Maxim Group estimates
Hemispherx Biopharma, Inc. (HEB)
Maxim Group LLC 4
Hemispherx Income Statement
(in $thousands U.S. Dollars)
1Q11E 2Q11E 3Q11E 4Q11E
Sales of product, net $ 1 73 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 3 75 $ 3 75 $ 1 ,400
Clinical treatment programs 92 1 11 1 35 3 0 34 36 3 7 1 37 1 40
Total Revenue 2 65 1 11 135 3 0 34 36 4 12 512 1,540
Cost of Sales 7 98 5 84 1 ,341 1 38 1 41 1 58 1 99 6 36 1 ,372
Gross Profit ( 533) ( 473) (1,206) (108) ( 107) ( 123) 2 14 (124) 168
Research and development 5,800 6,995 7 ,613 1,988 2,028 2,008 2,123 8 ,147 8,962
General and administrative 6,478 5,796 7 ,568 1,969 1,989 1,949 2,037 7 ,945 8,183
Amortization 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 - 0
Total Operating Expenses 12,278 12,791 15,181 3,957 4,017 3,957 4,160 16,092 17,145
Incomes (Losses) from operations (12,811) (13,264) (16,387) (4,066) (4,124) (4,079) (3,947) (16,216) (16,977)
Other Incomes (expenses)
Reversal of previously accrued interest expense - - - - - - - - -
Interest and other income 5 92 6 7 2 ,383 2 52 252 252 2 52 1 ,008 1 ,008
Interest expense 0 0 ( 11) (3) (3) (3) (3) ( 10) (10)
Redeemable warrants valuation adjustment 8 79
Financing costs - ( 241) - - - - - 0
Incomes (Losses) before tax (12,219) (13,438) (13,136) (3,816) (3,875) (3,830) (3,697) (15,218) (15,979)
Tax rate
Tax paid - - - - - - - - -
Net Incomes (Losses) (12,219) (13,438) (13,136) (3,816) (3,875) (3,830) (3,697) (15,218) (15,979)
Net Loss Applicable to Common Shareholders (12,219) (13,438) (13,136) (3,816) (3,875) (3,830) (3,697) (15,218) (15,979)
Net Earnings (Losses) Per Share—Basic (0.16) (0.12) (0.10) (0.03) (0.03) (0.03) (0.03) (0.11) (0.10)
Net Earnings (Losses) Per Share—Diluted (0.16) (0.12) (0.10) (0.03) (0.03) (0.03) (0.03) (0.11) (0.10)
Shares outstanding—basic 75,142 109,514 134,018 136,278 137,278 138,278 138,278 137,528 167,528
Shares outstanding—diluted 75,142 109,514 134,018 136,278 137,278 138,278 138,278 137,528 167,528
Margin Analysis (% of Sales/Revenue)
COGS 301% 526% 993% 458% 417% 445% 48% 124% 98%
R&D 2189% 6302% 5639% 6574% 5987% 5645% 515% 1591% 582%
SG&A 2445% 5222% 5606% 6512% 5873% 5481% 494% 1552% 531%
Operating Income (loss) NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Net Income -4611% -12106% -9730% -12619% -11440% -10770% -897% -2972% -1038%
Financial Indicator Growth Analysis (YoY%)
Total Revenue -75% -58% 22% -5% -17% 2% 1427% 279% 201%
Gross Profit -513% -11% 155% 0% -63% -16% -132% -90% -235%
Cost of goods sold -14% -27% 130% -80% 2% 12% 2% -53% 2%
R&D -44% 21% 9% -6% 2% -1% 6% 7% 10%
SG&A -28% -11% 31% -5% 1% -2% 5% 5% 3%
Operating Incomes (Losses) -34% 4% 24% 0% 9% 10% -19% -1% 5%
Pretax Income -33% 10% -2% -6% 5% 18% 71% 16% 5%
Net Income -33% 10% -2% -6% 5% 18% 71% 16% 5%
EPS - Basic -36% -26% -18% -8% 2% 15% 67% 13% -14%
EPS - Diluted -36% -26% -18% -8% 2% 15% 67% 13% -14%
2008A 2009A 2010A 2011E 2012E
Hemispherx Biopharma, Inc. (HEB)
Maxim Group LLC 5
Source: Investars
As of: 4/26/2011
% of Coverage % of Ratings
Universe that Firm received
Expected Performance* with Rating Banking fees
Buy Expected total return of 15% or more over next 12 months 61.8% 25.5%
Hold Expected total return of plus or minus 14% over next 12 months 32.9% 0.0%
Sell Expected total negative return of at least 15% over next 12 months 5.3% 0.0%
* Relative to Nasdaq Composite.
An Under Review (UR) rating represents a stock that the Firm has temporarily placed under review due to a material change.
Maxim Group LLC Stock Rating System
Maxim Group makes a market in Hemispherix BioPhamra, Inc.
Maxim Group received compensation for investment banking services from Hemispherx
Biopharma, Inc. in the past 12 months
Maxim Group expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services
from Hemispherx Biopharma, Inc. in the next 3 months
I, Yale Jen, attest that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views
about the subject security and issuer. Furthermore, no part of my compensation was, is, or will be directly
or indirectly related to the specific recommendation or views expressed in this research report.
The research analyst(s) primarily responsible for the preparation of this research report have received
compensation based upon various factors, including the firm’s total revenues, a portion of which is
generated by investment banking activities.
Valuation Methods: One or more of the following valuation methods are used by Maxim Group
analysts in making a ratings or price projection: Analysis of companies’ P/E ratio, price/book ratio,
earnings expectations or sales growth as they relate within an industry group or to the broader market,
enterprise value/sales, individual sector analysis, sum of the parts analysis and discounted cash flow.
Price Target Risks: Investment risks associated with the achievement of the price target include, but are
not limited to, the company’s failure to achieve our earnings and revenue estimates, unforeseen
macroeconomic and/or industry events that adversely impact demand for the company’s products and
services, product obsolescence, the company’s ability to recruit and retain competent personnel, changes
in investor sentiment regarding the specific company or industry, changing competitive pressures and
adverse market conditions. For a complete discussion of the risk factors that could affect the market price
of the company’s shares, refer to the most recent form 10-Q or 10-K that the company has filed with the
Hemispherx Biopharma, Inc. (HEB)
Maxim Group LLC 6
Investment Risks: Aside from general market and other economic risks, risks particular to our
Hemispherx Biopharma, Inc. rating include: (1) Whether the regulatory agencies permit the company to
commence clinical studies for its pipeline products – as well as under what terms – particularly Alferon LDO
in seasonal flu and Alferon LDO in CFS in the U.S.; (2) Clinical and regulatory risks also include the
robustness of the clinical results and whether each product receives approval; (3) The company also has
limited financial resources and may need to raise dilutive capital going forward; and (4) Other risks include IP
protection and manufacturing.
Risk ratings take into account both fundamental criteria and price volatility.
Speculative –
Fundamental Criteria: This is a risk rating assigned to early-stage companies with minimal to no
revenues, lack of earnings, balance sheet concerns, and/or a short operating history. Accordingly,
fundamental risk is expected to be significantly above the industry.
Price Volatility: Because of the inherent fundamental criteria of the companies falling within this risk
category, the price volatility is expected to be significant with the possibility that the investment could
eventually be worthless.
Speculative stocks may not be suitable for a significant class of individual investors.
High –
Fundamental Criteria: This is a risk rating assigned to companies having below-average revenue and
earnings visibility, negative cash flow, and low market cap or public float. Accordingly, fundamental risk
is expected to be above the industry.
Price volatility: The price volatility of companies falling within this category is expected to be above the
High-risk stocks may not be suitable for a significant class of individual investors.
Medium –
Fundamental Criteria: This is a risk rating assigned to companies that may have average revenue and
earnings visibility, positive cash flow, and is fairly liquid.
Accordingly, both price volatility and fundamental risk are expected to approximate the industry average.
Low –
Fundamental Criteria: This is a risk rating assigned to companies that may have above-average revenue
and earnings visibility, positive cash flow, and is fairly liquid.
Accordingly, both price volatility and fundamental risk are expected to be below the industry.
Hemispherx Biopharma, Inc. (HEB)
Maxim Group LLC 7
Some companies that Maxim Group LLC follows are emerging growth companies whose securities
typically involve a higher degree of risk and more volatility than the securities of more established
companies. The securities discussed in Maxim Group LLC research reports may not be suitable for some
investors. Investors must make their own determination as to the appropriateness of an investment in any
securities referred to herein, based on their specific investment objectives, financial status and risk
This communication is neither an offer to sell nor a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities mentioned
herein. This publication is confidential for the information of the addressee only and may not be reproduced
in whole or in part, copies circulated, or disclosed to another party, without the prior written consent of
Maxim Group, LLC (“Maxim”).
Information and opinions presented in this report have been obtained or derived from sources believed by
Maxim to be reliable, but Maxim makes no representation as to their accuracy or completeness. Maxim
accepts no liability for loss arising from the use of the material presented in this report, except that this
exclusion of liability does not apply to the extent that such liability arises under specific statutes or
regulations applicable to Maxim. This report is not to be relied upon in substitution for the exercise of
independent judgment. Maxim may have issued, and may in the future issue, other reports that are
inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, the information presented in this report. Those
reports reflect the different assumptions, views and analytical methods of the analysts who prepared them
and Maxim is under no obligation to ensure that such other reports are brought to the attention of any
recipient of this report.
Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance, and no
representation or warranty, express or implied, is made regarding future performance. Information, opinions
and estimates contained in this report reflect a judgment at its original date of publication by Maxim and are
subject to change without notice. The price, value of and income from any of the securities mentioned in
this report can fall as well as rise. The value of securities is subject to exchange rate fluctuation that may
have a positive or adverse effect on the price or income of such securities. Investors in securities such as
ADRs, the values of which are influenced by currency volatility, effectively assume this risk. Securities
recommended, offered or sold by Maxim: (1) are not insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Company;
(2) are not deposits or other obligations of any insured depository institution; and (3) are subject to
investment risks, including the possible loss of principal invested. Indeed, in the case of some investments,
the potential losses may exceed the amount of initial investment and, in such circumstances; you may be
required to pay more money to support these losses.

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Note d'information importante

Chère Cliente, Cher Client,

Nous souhaitons vous donner quelques règles à suivre pour investir dans les meilleures conditions et vous présenter les risques potentiels auxquels vous êtes susceptibles d'être exposés.

Vos connaissances, Votre profil d'investisseur
Tout d'abord évaluez vos connaissances boursières et financières et formez-vous en consultant le Guide de l'Investisseur, véritable introduction à la bourse et à l'épargne qui est disponible sur votre site Boursorama Banque sous la rubrique «Aide/Formation».
Définissez ensuite votre profil d'investisseur (prudent, équilibré, dynamique) et vos objectifs (durée de placement, rentabilité …). Ce constat vous permettra de vous orienter vers les produits et les marchés qui vous sont le mieux adaptés.

Pensez à vos besoins de liquidité
Adaptez votre durée de placement (1 mois, 1 an, 5 ans, …) à vos besoins de liquidités (projets, impôts …) et en tout état de cause, n'investissez pas en Bourse une partie trop importante de votre patrimoine.

La composition de votre portefeuille
Etudiez la composition de votre portefeuille : diversifiez vos placements afin de réduire au maximum le risque inhérent à un support ou à un secteur en particulier et n'investissez pas dans les produits optionnels (warrants, certificats), fortement risqués, si votre portefeuille n'est pas suffisamment important.

Connaître la vie des Sociétés
Renseignez-vous sur la société au sein de laquelle vous envisagez d'investir (actualités, santé financière, opérations à venir, …).

Agir en connaissance de cause
Soyez conscient des risques auxquels vous êtes exposés : de fait, si certains produits (actions volatiles, warrants, certificats, future…) ou certains modes d'investissement (Service de Règlement Différé) augmentent les espérances de gain, ils accroissent aussi fortement le risque de perte (totale). Ainsi, une connaissance technique préalable approfondie est requise, c'est pourquoi nous conseillons aux néophytes de s'écarter de ce type de produits.

Des risques différents selon les marchés
Prenez connaissance des caractéristiques des marchés sur lesquels vous allez investir : vous êtes confrontés à un risque variable (liquidité, volatilité, niveau d'information, change…) selon les marchés sur lesquels vous décidez d'intervenir (Premier Marché, Second Marché, Nouveau marché, Marché Libre, Marché étranger…).

Figez vos pertes
Enfin, la règle d'or à retenir est de savoir figer ses pertes : à vous de définir le montant de perte acceptable dès le début et une fois ce niveau atteint agissez en conséquence.

En appliquant ces quelques règles de bonnes conduite vous serez à même de mieux appréhender votre risque lorsque vous allez investir sur les Marchés

Un ensemble de cours complets sur la Bourse est également mis à votre disposition gratuitement et que vous pouvez retrouver sur votre site Boursorama Banque dans la rubrique «Aide/Formation». Si des questions resteraient en suspend, n'hésitez pas à contacter votre agence qui est à votre disposition.

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